The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. 2014). Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. In a study by Mekasha et al. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at nightresulting maximum difference in the daily range.But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature issmall. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . Summary of annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. In line with the study by Wu et al. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. 2005). Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. 2012; Meshesha et al. The most common types of soil are Cambisols (locally called Abolse), Vertisols (Merere), Andosols, Fluvisols and Regosols. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). How can we respond to the changing climate? Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. 2009). During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. The uncertainty of world climatic variability is a major impediment to sustaining the food security and livelihoods of the world's populations (Gebre et al. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. 2011; Funk et al. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. 2017a, 2017b). Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. The magnitude of the decreasing trend was found to be 0.06 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station, 0.05 mm/year and 8.80% at SD station, 0.11 mm/year and 12.70% at HG station, 0.13 mm/year and 29.00% change at SH station, 0.19 mm/year and 53.00% at DB station, 0.19 mm/year and 35.00% and 0.20 mm/year and 56.40% change at DBS station. 2013; Pachauri et al. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. Here are the average temperatures. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. Assessing the long-term spatiotemporal rainfall distribution pattern is the most significant component in the climate analysis of a given country, more specifically at the local and regional levels where the effect of climate change is worse. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. Therefore, clear information about the annual and seasonal rainfall distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. Warning: file(roboty.txt): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/kmichalski/domains/mikatextiles.com/public_html/ustawienia/init.php on line 0 . The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. Over the last three and a half decades, the total annual rainfall of the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. 5.3.2. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. Change are particularly serious for developing countries ( Parry 2007 ; Liang et al maximum temperatures increased at a rate... 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